Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast

Russian Provocation in the Sea of Azov

Over the weekend tensions escalated between Russia and the Ukraine as 3 Ukrainian naval vessels and crew were captured by Russian forces.  Our panel of Geopolitical an Macro Strategy experts provide commentary on possible outcomes, market impact, and probable US actions.

Sanctions & Waivers on Iran - Midterm Election Results

As the U.S. develops sanctions and waivers in regard to Iran and its nuclear pursuits, what does this mean for the markets and geopolitical environment.  We have Rachel Washburn moderating a conversation between Lieutenant General Frank Kearny, Major General James "Spider" Marks, and Peter Tchir surrounding this topic.  We also discuss midterm elections and how they may impact the global risk landscape.

Aftermath of Journalist Murder and the KSA

With the recent killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, what are the impacts this may have on U.S.- KSA relations as well as trade in the region.  How might the markets react to this event?  What may happen to the chances for the crown prince os Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman's future leadership opportunities?  Major General James Spider Marks, Lieutenant General David Deptula, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn from Academy Securities have a conversation covering all of these topics.

Ten Main Points for Chinese Military Modernization

Ten Main Points for Chinese Military Modernization

0:43 - Meeting between North & South Korea
2:00 - China's role in the North Korea
3:28 - 10 Main Points in Chinese Military Modernization

1. 5:15 - Expeditionary Doctrine
2. 6:15 - Degrade U.S. Technological Advantage
3. 6:55 - Naval Advancement Profile - First Engagement Capability
4. 7:55 - Increase Control over the Horizon
5. 8:42 - Use of Information of Gain Advantage
6. 9:22 - Intelligence Collection
7. 10:05 - Space & Counter Space
8. 10:38 - Air Component of Nuclear Triad
9. 10:56 - Belt and Road Initiative - Access through Economic Influence
10. 11:35 - Relationship with Taiwan

12:25 - Economic & Trade War

Ukraine / Macroeconomic perspective on SOFR Bonds

Academy Securities presents Major General James "Spider" Marks, Rachel Washburn, and Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir.  Spider shares his view on the current situation in Ukraine and how it plays a part in the relationship between Russia & Europe.  

 

Peter also shares his thoghts on SOFR bonds vs LIBOR bonds.

2018 Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Horizon

As we look to the remainder of 2018, what geopolitical risks and concerns should we have our eyes on?  The Academy Securities team discusses how they see the remainder of 2018 playing out.  We discuss the following:

• Chinese Military Expansion and Trade: 0:00-4:30
• North Korea: 4:31-7:31
• Afghanistan: 7:32 - 9:46
• US-Turkey Relatinoship: 9:47-12:11
• Russia Cyber Influence: 12:12 - 15:51
• Venezuela: 15:52 - 19:00
• Military Presence in MENA: 19:01- 22:30
• Market Commentary: 22:31 - 24:07
• Senator John McCain Tribute: 24:08 - 30:36

Also, here is a link to Peter Tchir's piece titled "Don’t Be Afraid of the Big Bad BBB Bonds"

As always you can reach us at info@academysecurities.com.   

Academy Securities is our nation's first and only Post-9/11 veteran and disabled veteran owned and operated investment bank with strength in capital markets, public finance, fixed income and equity trading.

 

Academy leverages intensive past Military training, in depth current financial experience, geopolitical knowledge and broad networks. Mission-driven teams bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. 

United States Space Force

Academy Secutities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast:  We discuss the announcement recently made concerning the creation of the US Space Force.  Rached Washburn, Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir and Andy Robinson discuss what the mission of the Space Force might be.  How will it's formation effect the other branches of the military as well as the Defense and Aerospace industry? Any questions...email info@academysecurities.com 

Key Points:

• The creation of a Space Force is an inevitability 
• Discussions will surround practicality, cost, and relevance regarding existing branches of the military 
• Space is a domain of war – one with many facets
• Commerce, navigation, intelligence collection, and communications all depend on the security of space
• Creating a space command before a Space Force would be a logical first step - a geographic command
• Commanding space is not only about the safety of space but also the mastery of all the functions enabled by advancement in space 
• The need for a Space Force is not necessarily threat based but capabilities based 

Impact on the Aerospace Industry: 

• The creation of a Space Force will focus on being budget neutral
• The long-term financial loser will be the Air Force
• Industry with a current footprint in space will benefit - especially for those helping the intelligence community 
• China, Russia, and France all have a significant presence in space
• The US leverages other nations current infrastructure
• Space is not the Wild West – it is governed – but it is not surprising to see the US trying to ensure it has total dominance in space 

Special Coverage on Turkey’s Financial Crisis

Major General James "Spider Marks and Peter Tchir discuss Turkey and it's impact on the global economy.

Indo-Pacific Region Strategy

Last week Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced significant US investment and strategy for the Indo-Pacific Region.  Academy Securities's Head of Geopolitical Strategy Major General James "Spider" Marks and Head of US Rates Sales and Trading Glen Capelo provide their thoughts onn this announcement in this episode.  Geopolitical Strategy Associate Rachel Washburn moderates the discussion.

 

Table of Contents: Indo-Pacific Campaign: 00:00 - 4:23 Trade War Update: 4:24 - 10:04 Allies in the Region: 10:05 – 25:35

Key Points: Secretary Pompeo’s announcement for the Indo-Pacific economic strategy: Pompeo has put a spotlight on a long-term effort in the Indo-Pacific Region The US has never lost sight of the importance of this region, but the perceived negligence exists because the US has spent the last 17 years at war in the Middle East and SW Asia It is critical for the US to remain engaged in the Indo-Pacific Any solution with North Korea runs through Beijing: China, Japan, and Russia are important partners in the Indo-Pacific Security guarantees help incentivize economic growth Economic effort, on the part of the Chinese, has been their primary element of power to achieve global influence They create dependency- the US needs to provide a legitimate alternative North Korea and Indonesia showcase perfect opportunities for the US to compete with China for influence: China is not going to back away from their military presence in the South China Sea Friends in the region need to know that we remain committed to partnerships- a consistent partner and friend Any engagement with Chinese companies is an engagement with the Chinese intelligence collection apparatus    Market Impact: The market is digesting this information especially as it pertains to long-term challenges with trade: China’s economic system can sustain a long-term trade war and President Xi is prepared This is the beginning of something new: President Trump’s negotiation style is reflective of this new management It is a monumental turn that we have gotten North Korea to the table and opened a dialogue No doubt that the trade war could have collateral damage on our progress with North Korea Economically, these issues will benefit our relationship with Japan When dealing with China, you are not only dealing with private companies but also with the state

International Engagement - US vs. China

This episode of the Academy Securities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast covers the differences between the way China and the US asserts influence around the globe.  We also discuss how energy independece effects the market regarding the trade war between the US and China.