Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast

Unrest in Hong Kong

Academy Securities Geopolitical SITREP  

Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape 

 

 

Table of Contents: 

Hong Kong Protest Background: 00:00 - 4:33 

Mainland China’s Response: 4:34 - 11:28 

The View from Taiwan: 11:29 - 15:43 

North Korea and China: 15:44 - 19:09 

 

Listen on iTunes Here 

Listen on Google Play 

 

Key Points: 

• For the last several years, the market has failed to fully recognize that Hong Kong is a part of China - it isn’t completely independent.  
• If the U.S. were to respond to the crisis, it would be with more difficult terms around trade.  
• Much of the anti-government sentiment and protests began in April in response to an extradition bill. 

• China and Hong Kong are part of “one country two systems”: 

• The Hong Kong system and “basic law” protects civil freedoms of Hong Kong citizens. 
• The protesters wish to highlight the deterioration of these freedoms and protections.  

• The protests are not hierarchical or organized. 

• The protesters and their recent actions risk alienating the population to their cause.  

• China’s growing global influence could impact its response.  
• China’s deft social media and AI capabilities are important considerations when evaluating these protests. 
• Two U.S. Navy port visits have been canceled amid protests and accusations of U.S. involvement.  
• The Chinese People’s Armed Police - not Army - has massed on the Hong Kong boarder. 
• China is walking a fine line trying to diminish the impact of the protests while using limited force.  

• An escalation by mainland China would result in more disruptions to trade negotiations with the U.S.  
• Taiwan is watching what happens in Hong Kong very closely: 

• The events in Hong Kong could lead to more anti-Chinese/anti-communist sentiment in Taiwan.   

• The U.S. has approved new military sales to Taiwan and China has responded by increasing military operations around Taiwan. 
• North Korea remains economically dependent on China and China remains a consideration as we evaluate the ongoing negotiations with North Korea and its behavior. 

UK Royal Navy intervenes in protection of UK merchant vessels from the Iranian IRGC Navy

As events continue to develop in the Straights of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, tensions rise between Iran, the US, and other super powers active in these very valuable and necessary shipping lanes.  This week the UK Royal Navy had to place ships between a UK flagged merchant ship from BP and Iranian IRGC vessels.

We immediately got on the phone to discuss this further with our Geopolitical & macro Strategy team members.  We had Lieutenant General Frank Kearney and Lieutenant General David Deptula were featured in this conversation.  

I've also included sections from previous podcasts on the topic of Iran.  Those conversations feature Major General James "Spider" Marks and Brigadier General Tony Tata.

There are also several written pieces we've published regarding this global concern.  They can be viewed by clicking here.

Trump & Kim DMZ Walk, G20, Iran, & Turkey

Academy Securities discusses the recent meeting between President Trump's & Kim Jong Un's meeting and walk through the demilitarized zone.  We also talk about the results (or lack there of) after the G20 summit in Japan.  The second half of the conversation focuses on the effect sanctions are having on Iran and recent election results in Turkey.

Trade War - The Long War

We continue the conversation regarding the Trade War with China.  We cover Academy's previous coverage of this subject as well as long term forecasting.  Academy Securities has stayed ahead of some of the recent geopolitical, macro, and credit market trends that are driving price action lately. For example, here are some instances where Peter has been on the leading edge of market dynamics, and has been called on frequently by the financial press, including Bloomberg TV, to share his developing thoughts:

 

• In late March we started focusing more on China as a “strategic competitor” tying our geopolitical perspectives with Peter’s thought process.  Peter wasn’t yet bearish but that set the stage. See here for his thoughts then: China Trade War

 

• By mid-April he was more concerned and became more bullish. You all may have seen some of those notes.

 

• Turned full-scale bearish on May 12^th, with this piece:Crossing the Rubicon with China

POTUS Denies Waivers for Iranian Oil Sanctions

Brigadier General Tata, Peter Tchir, Rachel Washburn, and Chance Mims all discuss the Trump Administration's decision to deny waivers to countries that want to buy Iranian Oil against standing sanctions.  What threats are associated with this decision?

2019 Second Quarter Outlook

We discuss Geopolitical & Macro Strategy concerns with brigadier General Tony Tata, Major General James Spider Marks, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn.

 

Topics 

• China & Trade
• Taiwan, US, and China Relations
• India's Position Among Other Leading Nations
• Elections in Indonesia
• Russian Interference in Ukraine's Elections
• Volatility in Turkey
• Unrest in Venezuela 

Hanoi Summit 2019 Between North Korea & The United States

United States President Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim meet in February 2019 to discuss nuclear capabilities of North Korea and economic sanctions that have been in place for years.  Major General James "Spider" Marks, Lieutenant General Bob Walsh, and Rachel Washburn of Academy Securities discuss the outcome of this recent summit.

Rising Tension between India & Pakistan

Today our conversation focuses on India & Pakistan. On February 14th a terrorist attack killed 40 Indian soldiers in Indian controlled Kashmir. India claimed this week that it launched airstrikes into Pakistani territory against the terrorist groups responsible for the February 14th attack.

This Wednesday a confrontation occurred between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets which resulted in Indian aircraft being shot down and a plot captured by Pakistani forces. As this was recorded Pakistani and Indian governments had begun negotiations for the return of the Indian Pilot.

Rachel Washburn and Major General James Spider Marks discuss this situation involving 2 nuclear-armed nations.

Political Crisis in Venezuela

As the political crisis continues to take place in Venezuela the international community chooses to back Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó.  We discuss with our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy experts what may happen next and how markets may be impacted.

US Withdraw from Syria & Government Shutdown State of Emergency