Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast

Geopolitical Risks/Surprises in 2022

Table of Contents​

• Introduction: 00:00 – 1:23​
• State of Geopolitical Risk in 2022: 1:24 – 6:23​
• Macro Perspective: End of an Era: 6:24 – 8:08​
• India and Central/South America: 8:09 – 13:45​
• Supply Chains, Cyber, and ESG: 13:46 – 22:39​
• Space and Nuclear Weapons: 22:40 – 30:12​
• Other Areas of Concern: 30:13 – 38:28​
• Conclusion: 38:29 – End

Webinar: The Risk of Global Nuclear Proliferation

Table of Contents

• Introduction: 00:00 – 1:53
• Status of the Iranian Nuclear Negotiations: 1:54 – 11:32
• Israel’s Nuclear Weapons and Capabilities: 11:33 – 20:50
• International Coalition to Confront Iran: 20:51 – 25:39
• Nuclear Power Industry: 25:40 – 33:20
• Chinese/Russian Hypersonic Technology and Space: 33:21 – 45:52
• Q&A and Conclusion: 45:53 – End

ESG Best Practices: Social Responsability

The second episode in our ESG series focuses on Social Responsibility and Diversity & Inclusion.  Our contributors to this conversation include:

• Rachel Washburn - Head of Geopolitical Intelligence
• Peter Tchir - Head of Macro Strategy
• Janie Mines - SVP of Inclusion & Innovation
• Mike Rodriguez - Head of ESG

Table of Contents

• 0:00 - 1:43- Introductions
• 1:44 - 3:33 - Importance of Diversity
• 3:34 - 10:31 - Market Implications of Social Responsibility
• 10:32 - 17:59 - ESG Investing & Supply Chains
• 18:00 - 28:59 - Social Responsibility Metrics
• 29:00 - 32:54 - Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts

Afghanistan – 20 Years of War, Now What?

Table of Contents

• Introduction: 00:00 - 01:04
• Why this matters to us: 1:05 - 02:59
• The departure of the United States and the lead up to the collapse: 3:00 - 7:45
• The strategic purpose of our presence - where we started, why we stayed and what risks to watch for next: 7:46 - 11:09
• What does stability for Afghanistan look like today: 11:10 - 12:59
• China and Other Superpowers in the region, the global economy moving forward and how we recover: 13:00 - 19:53
• How this is different other nations’ post war recoveries, and future supply chain concerns: 19:54 - 25:40

Q&A:

• Threats left in the region and what does a Taliban Government like going forward: 25:41 - 28:01
• How will this effect government spending and what does this mean for consumers, and closing thoughts: 28:02 - end

ESG Best Practices – Environmental Sustainability

ESG Best Practices – Environmental Sustainability

Table of Contents:

• Introduction: 00:00 – 01:25
• Views of a Vulnerable Planet from Space: 1:25 – 4:30
• Global Cooperation and Competition in ESG Issues: 4:31– 7:44
• ESG Best Practices: 7:45 – 15:31
• Space and Tech’s role in Addressing Climate Change: 15:32 – 20:36
• Crypto Currency from a Green Perspective: 20:37 – 23:15
• Resources for Clients: 23:16 - end

Key Points:

• Viewing the earth from space allows for the observation of the profound man-made changes to this planet
• RSG initiatives require cooperation and verification
• When evaluation ESG metrics organizations should focus on what is critical to them, what they can control, then build for impact
• ESG will be inflationary
• Companies should get ahead of the curve on the ESG evaluations of supply chains
• Forestry will be a significant part of achieving net-zero emission goals
• China is committed to space-based power generation
• Crypto currencies have the potential to generate green technology but are currently consuming an incredible amount of energy
• European space agency and jet propulsion laboratory are two great resources for data helpful to sustainability considerations

Wendy B. Lawrence is an Academy Securities’ Board Member. Ms. Lawrence is a former NASA astronaut who has logged over 1225 hours in space as a mission specialist and was a veteran of four space flights. A retired United States Navy Captain, Ms. Lawrence was a helicopter pilot with more than 1,500 hours of flight time in six different types of helicopters and made more than 800 shipboard landings. She is the first female graduate of the United States Naval Academy to fly into space after being selected by NASA in March 1992. While an astronaut, she visited the Russian Space Station Mir and was a mission specialist on STS-114, the first Space Shuttle flight after the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Ms. Lawrence received a Bachelor of Science degree in ocean engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1981. She also received a Master of Science degree in ocean engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in 1988. She was awarded the Defense Superior Service Medal, the Defense Meritorious Service Medal, and the NASA Space Flight Medal.

Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance.

Mike Rodriguez is Head of ESG at Academy Securities. Mike is a former infantry Marine who was wounded in the Battle of Fallujah and awarded the Purple Heart. Following his military service and recovery, he did his graduate work at Dartmouth where he focused on issues of sustainability as it pertains to National Security and earned a Master’s Degree in Globalization Studies. His specialization at Academy Securities is in ESG and green issuance and investing, where he focuses on the metrics by which green and sustainably themed/marketed securities are evaluated.

21st Century Space Race

Table of Contents

• Introduction 00:00 - 2:35
• Creation of US Space Force 2:36 - 13:30
• International Players and cooperation in space 13:31 - 15:51
• Private sector and commercialization of space 15:52 - 27:13
• ESG element in space 27:14 - 29:20
• National security and technology concerns 29:21 - 32:50
• Geopolitical considerations and opportunities 32:51 - End

Russian Troop Increase on the Ukrainian Border

Major General James "Spider" Marks, Major General Mastin Robeson, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn discuss the recent increase of Russian Troops on the Border with Ukraine.  

 

Table of Contents

• Introduction (0:00-2:43)
• Situation Overview (2:44-8:03)
• U.S. Options (8:04-11:12)
• Russia | China Relationship (11:13-15:02)
• Sanctions & Crypto Currencies (15:03-20:39)
• Russia's Objectives (20:40-24:20)
• Escalations & Indications to watch for (24:21-End)

Threat of Domestic Terrorism

Threat of Domestic Terrorism

 

Table of Contents:

• Introduction: 00:00 – 00:54

• External vs. internal threats: 00:55 – 19:54

• Counterterrorism in an era of strategic competition: 19:55 – 25:22

• Vulnerabilities: 25:23 - end

Listen on iTunes Listen on Google Play

Listen on Academy’s Website

 

 

Key Points:

· Domestic threats pose a distinct risk which requires a different set of protections.

· Cyber and domestic threats are much more complicated and require a lot of local support.

· Social media not only allows for anonymous expression, but also a communication system, enabling both potential radicalization and mobilization.

· The impact of social media and smart devices requires a new review of how to manage potential monitoring strategies and civil liberties.

· Rail and road networks are part of the threat surface for domestic attacks.

· What is defined as a U.S. person extends to the cyber domain.

· The political intent of an act is important when determining terror threats.

· Work from home expands the threat surface for cyber hackers.

· Integrated operations between agencies may be needed to effectively address domestic threats.

· Counterterrorism abroad remains a focus even in an era of strategic competition.

· Electrical grid and financial markets remain vulnerable

Geostrategic Surprises of 2021

This podcast is a recording from a webinar entitled "Geostrategic Surprises of 2021".  This event was held on January 19th, 2021.

Talking Points

• China and the future of Taiwan
• North Korea's options
• U.S. - India relationship
• Iran back on the offensive
• Turkey & NATO
• Cyber threats

Transition and the First 100 Days

Academy Securities Geopolitical Podcast 

Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape 

 

 

Transition and the First 100 Days 

 

Table of Contents:  

• Introduction: 00:00 – 00:52 
• Transition and Adversary Risk: 00:53 – 11:00 
• Elements of Power and Multilateral Relationships: 11:01 – 24:23 
• Technology, Manufacturing, and Competition with China: 24:24 – 33:51 
• First 100 Days: 33:52 – End  

 

Listen on iTunes 

Listen on Google Play 

Listen on Academy’s Website 

 

Key Points: 

• Transition team - those expected to be nominated for national security positions are already engaged and working hand in hand with the agencies and departments that will be under their management  

• China will remain a top focus for the incoming administration 

• Russia will likely take some advantage of the transitionary period, but other competitors who seek better relations with the Biden administration are unlikely to cause trouble  
• The Biden administration will focus on filling all the lower appointed positions that remained empty during the Trump administration  

• Yellen’s nomination is designed to achieve bipartisan support 
• China – while still expected to be treated as a strategic competitor, many of the economic advisors to the Biden administration do not have a history of being pro-tariff  
• A Biden administration will put pressure on China by leaning on our partners 
• China works in its best interest, and we are seeing it leverage not only its economic power, but now its information and military might 
• There will be elements of compromise in our competition with China 

• A threat to Taiwan may end the era of “strategic ambiguity” between the U.S. and China  

• The tech industry is particularly vulnerable to China’s ambitions  
• Vaccine distribution will impact our relationship with China  

• The Belt and Road initiative will play a role in China’s pandemic response  

Major General (Ret.) James A. "Spider" Marks is Head of Geopolitical Strategy and Academy Securities' Senior Advisory Board Member. General Marks is the Founder and President of The Marks Collaborative, an advisory for corporate leader development, education and training and has led entrepreneurial efforts in global primary research and national security. He served over 30 years in the Army holding every command position from infantry platoon leader to commanding general and was the senior intelligence officer in the LA Riots, the Balkans, Korea, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He culminated his career as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit with Oak Leaf cluster, Bronze Star, and multiple combat, expeditionary and service ribbons. General Marks is a Master parachutist, authorized to wear Korean and Canadian Airborne wings, Air Assault qualified, and Honor Graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. General Marks is a national security contributor to CNN and member of the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame.  

 

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense. 

 

Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on 

fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance. 

 

The following information has been provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a solicitation, an offer to sell, or an offer to buy any security. Academy Securities Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. 

 

Academy Securities is a preeminent disabled veteran owned investment bank with strength in public finance, fixed income and equity trading and underwriting. Leadership and staff have had intensive military training prior to entering and gaining in-depth financial services experience in global capital markets. We are mission driven with a high ethical code, a solid sense of accountability and strive for excellence in the pursuit of our clients' success. Intellectual assets, strong visionary leaders and a proud team commitment bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. Academy is our nation's first and only post-9/11 disabled veteran owned investment bank and is certified as DVBE, SDVOSB and MBE. The firm has a strong top and middle tier client base served by a national platform with offices in New York, Chicago, San Diego, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Chapel Hill.  

Please visit our website at www.academysecurities.com. 

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