Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast

21st Century Space Race

Table of Contents

• Introduction 00:00 - 2:35
• Creation of US Space Force 2:36 - 13:30
• International Players and cooperation in space 13:31 - 15:51
• Private sector and commercialization of space 15:52 - 27:13
• ESG element in space 27:14 - 29:20
• National security and technology concerns 29:21 - 32:50
• Geopolitical considerations and opportunities 32:51 - End

Russian Troop Increase on the Ukrainian Border

Major General James "Spider" Marks, Major General Mastin Robeson, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn discuss the recent increase of Russian Troops on the Border with Ukraine.  

 

Table of Contents

• Introduction (0:00-2:43)
• Situation Overview (2:44-8:03)
• U.S. Options (8:04-11:12)
• Russia | China Relationship (11:13-15:02)
• Sanctions & Crypto Currencies (15:03-20:39)
• Russia's Objectives (20:40-24:20)
• Escalations & Indications to watch for (24:21-End)

Threat of Domestic Terrorism

Threat of Domestic Terrorism

 

Table of Contents:

• Introduction: 00:00 – 00:54

• External vs. internal threats: 00:55 – 19:54

• Counterterrorism in an era of strategic competition: 19:55 – 25:22

• Vulnerabilities: 25:23 - end

Listen on iTunes Listen on Google Play

Listen on Academy’s Website

 

 

Key Points:

· Domestic threats pose a distinct risk which requires a different set of protections.

· Cyber and domestic threats are much more complicated and require a lot of local support.

· Social media not only allows for anonymous expression, but also a communication system, enabling both potential radicalization and mobilization.

· The impact of social media and smart devices requires a new review of how to manage potential monitoring strategies and civil liberties.

· Rail and road networks are part of the threat surface for domestic attacks.

· What is defined as a U.S. person extends to the cyber domain.

· The political intent of an act is important when determining terror threats.

· Work from home expands the threat surface for cyber hackers.

· Integrated operations between agencies may be needed to effectively address domestic threats.

· Counterterrorism abroad remains a focus even in an era of strategic competition.

· Electrical grid and financial markets remain vulnerable

Geostrategic Surprises of 2021

This podcast is a recording from a webinar entitled "Geostrategic Surprises of 2021".  This event was held on January 19th, 2021.

Talking Points

• China and the future of Taiwan
• North Korea's options
• U.S. - India relationship
• Iran back on the offensive
• Turkey & NATO
• Cyber threats

Transition and the First 100 Days

Academy Securities Geopolitical Podcast 

Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape 

 

 

Transition and the First 100 Days 

 

Table of Contents:  

• Introduction: 00:00 – 00:52 
• Transition and Adversary Risk: 00:53 – 11:00 
• Elements of Power and Multilateral Relationships: 11:01 – 24:23 
• Technology, Manufacturing, and Competition with China: 24:24 – 33:51 
• First 100 Days: 33:52 – End  

 

Listen on iTunes 

Listen on Google Play 

Listen on Academy’s Website 

 

Key Points: 

• Transition team - those expected to be nominated for national security positions are already engaged and working hand in hand with the agencies and departments that will be under their management  

• China will remain a top focus for the incoming administration 

• Russia will likely take some advantage of the transitionary period, but other competitors who seek better relations with the Biden administration are unlikely to cause trouble  
• The Biden administration will focus on filling all the lower appointed positions that remained empty during the Trump administration  

• Yellen’s nomination is designed to achieve bipartisan support 
• China – while still expected to be treated as a strategic competitor, many of the economic advisors to the Biden administration do not have a history of being pro-tariff  
• A Biden administration will put pressure on China by leaning on our partners 
• China works in its best interest, and we are seeing it leverage not only its economic power, but now its information and military might 
• There will be elements of compromise in our competition with China 

• A threat to Taiwan may end the era of “strategic ambiguity” between the U.S. and China  

• The tech industry is particularly vulnerable to China’s ambitions  
• Vaccine distribution will impact our relationship with China  

• The Belt and Road initiative will play a role in China’s pandemic response  

Major General (Ret.) James A. "Spider" Marks is Head of Geopolitical Strategy and Academy Securities' Senior Advisory Board Member. General Marks is the Founder and President of The Marks Collaborative, an advisory for corporate leader development, education and training and has led entrepreneurial efforts in global primary research and national security. He served over 30 years in the Army holding every command position from infantry platoon leader to commanding general and was the senior intelligence officer in the LA Riots, the Balkans, Korea, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He culminated his career as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit with Oak Leaf cluster, Bronze Star, and multiple combat, expeditionary and service ribbons. General Marks is a Master parachutist, authorized to wear Korean and Canadian Airborne wings, Air Assault qualified, and Honor Graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. General Marks is a national security contributor to CNN and member of the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame.  

 

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense. 

 

Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on 

fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance. 

 

The following information has been provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a solicitation, an offer to sell, or an offer to buy any security. Academy Securities Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. 

 

Academy Securities is a preeminent disabled veteran owned investment bank with strength in public finance, fixed income and equity trading and underwriting. Leadership and staff have had intensive military training prior to entering and gaining in-depth financial services experience in global capital markets. We are mission driven with a high ethical code, a solid sense of accountability and strive for excellence in the pursuit of our clients' success. Intellectual assets, strong visionary leaders and a proud team commitment bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. Academy is our nation's first and only post-9/11 disabled veteran owned investment bank and is certified as DVBE, SDVOSB and MBE. The firm has a strong top and middle tier client base served by a national platform with offices in New York, Chicago, San Diego, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Chapel Hill.  

Please visit our website at www.academysecurities.com. 

Third Party Research Disclosure:  

The opinions are those of independent third-party research providers. Information contained herein is based on information provided by a third-party research provider and is not guaranteed by us, nor should the information be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or provide investment advice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Academy Securities Inc, its employees, officers, or directors. Academy Securities, Inc. directors, officers and employees and their family members from time to time may own securities of the publicly traded companies discussed in any referenced independent Third-Party Research report. Academy Securities, Inc. may have a marketing partnership with several Third-Party Research providers to market their research services to institutional clients. Academy Securities, Inc. is an agency-only broker. The firm does not produce proprietary research, nor does it engage in any proprietary trading. The user is responsible for verifying the accuracy of the data received. Academy Securities, Inc. does not have any ownership of the subject company's securities. Academy Securities, Inc. has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. Academy Securities, Inc. does not or has not had any investment banking relationships with the subject company in the past 12 months nor expects to in the next 3 months. Academy Securities, Inc. does not have any market making activities in the subject company's securities. Academy Securities, Inc. does not maintain an analytical relationship and is not a member of any distributing organization. Academy Securities, Inc. makes no claim as to its accuracy or completeness. Academy Securities, Inc. is not responsible for the content or comments of these independent third-party research providers. Academy Securities, Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. 

 

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Post-Election Impact on the Markets & Foreign Policy

Academy Securities hosted a Zoom webinar on November 5th, 2020.  At the time of this webinar the results of the presidential election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.  Major General James "Spider" Marks, Rachel Washburn, and Peter Tchir discuss the impact of this on the markets and global risk landscape.

Cyber Security Awareness Podcast

Key Points: 

• Data protection, network security, and Cyber Security Awareness Month
• Progress made by U.S. corporations/municipalities to better prepare and defend themselves against cyber-attacks  
• Election security and disinformation campaigns designed to undermine the confidence in our electoral system
• By volume, China conducts the most disinformation attacks
• Nation states including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and the great power competition
• Rising China: cyber, AI/machine learning, quantum computing, and threats to critical infrastructure
• Global risks to data and implementation of 5G
• Recidivist Russia: cyber capabilities and their desire to be viewed as a global superpower 
  Russia has the most sophisticated cyber capabilities  
• Revolutionary Iran: U.S. financial sector viewed as the center of power and likelihood of a more destructive cyber-attack
• U.S. policy towards cyber-attacks against our interests
• Cyber criminals and digital currencies
• Risk to global supply chains 

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Vincent R. Stewart is an Academy Securities’ Advisory Board Member. 

Lieutenant General Stewart served in the United States Marine Corps for over 35 years. He most recently served as Deputy Commander, U.S. Cyber Command. Prior to this assignment, Lieutenant General Stewart served as the 20th Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. A native of Chicago, Illinois, by way of Kingston, Jamaica, Lieutenant General Stewart graduated from Western Illinois University, earning his commission in 1981. He has served as an armor officer and subsequently as a signal’s intelligence and intelligence officer, commanding at every level. Lieutenant General Stewart earned master’s degrees in National Security and Strategic Studies from the Naval War College, Newport, R.I. and in National Resource Strategy from the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University, Washington, D.C. 

Lieutenant General Stewart’s military decorations include: the Defense Superior Service Medal; the Legion of Merit with one gold star; the Bronze Star; the Meritorious Service Medal with one gold star; the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, with two gold stars; the Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal; the Combat Action Ribbon; the National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal; and various unit awards. 

Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance. 

Geostrategic Threats and Opportunities as the U.S. Election Looms

Zoom Roundtable - Treating China as a Strategic Competitor

We hosted a Zoom video Roundtable discussing treating China as a strategic competitor.  Participants in this event included Lieutenant General Bob Walsh, Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir and Rachel Washburn. 

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea

Table of Contents:

• Introduction: 0:00 - 1:17
• What is happening in the South China Sea: 1:18 - 9:45
• How the tensions may impact trade: 9:45 - 17:07
• Impact of Hong Kong’s new national security law: 17:08 - 22:41
• Risk of miscalculation or accident: 22:42 - 26:40
• Race for new technology: 26:41 - End

Key Points:

• The U.S. recently announced that it rejects China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea (SCS)
• The “great power competition” we are seeing in the SCS is potentially moving the U.S. towards a Cold War with China, but neither country wants a conflict
• China’s claim to the SCS is based on the fact that it is not a signatory to the WWII Peace Treaty
• The U.S., along with its network of allies and partners in the region, must act as a counterweight to China
• China is using an Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy in the SCS and has militarized several islands with aircraft, missiles, and jamming technology
• There remains a risk of miscalculation with two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups operating in the SCS
• Undersea cables, critical for the use of the internet and messaging, may be at risk given China’s expansion in the region
• While tensions will continue to rise, China will remain a key global trading partner
• However, countries will be more careful regarding tech (5G) and supply chain (PPE)
• The developments in Hong Kong may not be crucial to the global economy, but it may be a precursor to a change in Chinese strategy regarding Taiwan
• It is becoming harder to separate the economic and diplomatic issues after the U.S. ended the preferential treatment Hong Kong once received and China is now cracking down on U.S. companies doing business with Taiwan
• The international community is starting to recognize the technological competition with China

Major General Clarence K.K. Chinn is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Major General Chinn brings decades of experience to Academy’s Advisory Board, having served in the U.S. Army for over 36 years. He most recently served as Commander, U.S. Army South, where he was responsible for the conduct and support of multinational operations and security operations in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility (31 countries and 15 areas of special sovereignty in Central/South America and the Caribbean) in order to counter transregional transnational threat networks and strengthen regional security in defense of the homeland. Prior to this assignment, Major General Chinn served as the Deputy Commander for United States Army Special Operations Command, as the Senior Commander at Fort Bragg, a $32 billion dollar industry for North Carolina annually, and Commanding General at Fort Polk, LA. Major General Chinn is a 1981 graduate of the United States Military Academy and holds a master’s degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Army War College. He has served as an Infantry officer, commanding at every level, with extensive time serving with Airborne / Ranger units. Currently residing in Aiea, Hawaii, Major General Chinn has been assisting United States Army Pacific with their Regional Leader Development Program – Pacific.

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.

Peter Tchir is Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance