Actions in Iran

Key Points: 

• Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran  
• The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy:  

• Constrain Iran’s malign activity  

• Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq 
• Deter further Iranian aggression 

• Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population  
• Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant  
• The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces  

• Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion  

• Future attacks will allow Iran deniability  
• Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region  

• Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions  
• A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq  

• Kim Jung Un is watching this closely  

• China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea  
• China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea 

• For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises  

• Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran  

• Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran  

• If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted